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| Russian president Vladimir Putin. Photo: Vyacheslav Prokofyev/Sputnik/Kremlin pool/EPA |
A Tactical Reminder
Vladimir Putin’s missile campaigns in Ukraine have often been multifaceted in their objectives. Militarily, they aim to weaken Ukraine’s infrastructure and morale. Politically, they send a clear message to NATO and its allies: Russia remains a formidable adversary, undeterred by Western sanctions or support for Ukraine. Putin’s recent moves could be seen as a preemptive maneuver—a way of testing the West’s resolve under shifting leadership dynamics.
The West has shown remarkable unity under President Joe Biden’s administration, providing Ukraine with financial, military, and humanitarian aid. However, Trump’s first term demonstrated a markedly different approach to NATO and global alliances. His transactional diplomacy and criticism of NATO as “obsolete” raised questions about the U.S.’s commitment to collective security. For Putin, this uncertainty is an opportunity to exploit.
Testing the West’s Unity
The latest missile strikes can also be seen as a litmus test for Europe’s endurance. As winter looms, Europe’s reliance on alternative energy sources—necessitated by sanctions on Russian gas—will be stretched to the brink. Putin may be calculating that escalating the conflict could deepen divisions within the EU and NATO, particularly if the U.S.’s stance wavers.
Trump’s return could exacerbate these divisions. His "America First" policy prioritized domestic concerns over international commitments, leaving allies uncertain about U.S. leadership. A fragmented NATO would be a dream scenario for Putin, giving Russia greater freedom to act unchallenged in its sphere of influence.
A Shift in U.S. Leadership
The potential “second age of Trump” introduces another layer of unpredictability. Trump has often expressed admiration for Putin’s strongman persona and was criticized for failing to hold Russia accountable during his presidency. While his foreign policy decisions were not uniformly pro-Russia, they reflected a reluctance to engage in prolonged conflicts or invest heavily in global alliances. This approach could embolden Putin to escalate his military campaign, betting on diminished Western support for Ukraine.
Furthermore, Trump’s return could lead to renewed U.S.-Russia dialogues, possibly undermining Ukraine’s position. Negotiations, while necessary to end the war, could favor Moscow if conducted under circumstances of weakened Western resolve. For Ukraine, this scenario raises existential concerns about its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The Broader Implications
Putin’s strategic timing underscores his understanding of Western politics. By escalating tensions now, he pressures the current U.S. administration while laying the groundwork for potential advantages under a Trump presidency. The ripple effects extend beyond Ukraine, impacting global security frameworks, energy markets, and the balance of power in Europe.
For the West, the challenge lies in maintaining unity and resilience, regardless of leadership changes. A cohesive strategy to counter Russia’s aggression and support Ukraine is essential, not just for regional stability but for the credibility of democratic alliances worldwide.
Conclusion
As the war in Ukraine rages on, the stakes are higher than ever. Russia’s missile strikes are not just acts of war; they are statements of intent—to challenge the West, exploit its divisions, and reshape the global order. The prospect of a second Trump presidency adds a layer of complexity, potentially altering the U.S.’s role as a stabilizing force.
In this volatile landscape, the decisions made in the coming months will reverberate for years to come. The West must prepare for every scenario, recognizing that the strength of its response today will define the future of global security.